Umuhora wa Hormuz: Impamvu uyu muhanda wo mu nyanja ari ingenzi ku bucuruzi bw’ibitoro ku isi

Nubwo ari inzira ntoya iri mu nyanja yo mu kigobe cy’Abarabu, Umuhora wa Hormuz ni umwe mu mihanda y’ingenzi cyane ku bucuruzi bw’ibitoro ku isi. Mojtaba Khamenei, wavuzweho nk’umuyobozi mushya w’ikirenga wa Iran, yavuze ko igihugu cye gishobora gukoresha uburyo bwose bushoboka bwo kuwufunga mu gihe cy’intambara.

Ibi byateye impungenge ku isi, kuko guhungabana cyangwa gufungwa k’uyu muhora bishobora kugira ingaruka ku bihugu byinshi bitewe n’uruhare runini ufite mu bwikorezi bw’ibitoro.

Umuhora wa Hormuz ni iki?

Umuhora wa Hormuz ni imwe mu nzira z’ingenzi ku isi zinyuramo ibitoro bitwarwa mu nyanja biva mu bihugu byo mu kigobe cy’Abarabu. Bivugwa ko hafi 20% by’ibitoro bikoreshwa ku isi binyura muri uyu muhora mbere yo kugera ku masoko mpuzamahanga.

Mu majyaruguru y’uyu muhora hari igihugu cya Iran, mu gihe mu majyepfo hari Emira Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu na Oman.

Ubugari bw’uyu muhora bugera kuri kilometero hafi 50 ku mwinjiriro, naho ku musozo bukaba hafi kilometero 33. Ufite ubujyakuzimu buhagije butuma ubwato bunini cyane butwara ibitoro byinshi bushobora kuwunyuramo.

Mu mwaka wa 2025, hafi utugunguru miliyoni 20 tw’ibitoro ku munsi twanyuraga muri uyu muhora, nk’uko byatangajwe n’Ikigo cy’Abanyamerika gishinzwe amakuru ku mikoreshereze y’ingufu.

Mu mwaka wose, ibyo bitoro byaba bifite agaciro ka hafi miliyari 600 z’amadolari.

Ibyo bitoro ntibiva muri Iran gusa. Biva no mu bindi bihugu bikomeye mu bucukuzi bwabyo birimo Irak, Kuwait, Qatar, Arabie Saoudite ndetse na Emira Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu.

Ubwato bwinshi butinya kuhanyura

Buri kwezi, ubwato burenga ibihumbi 3 butwara ibicuruzwa bunyura muri uyu muhora. Gusa kuva intambara yatangira muri aka karere, ubwato bwinshi bwatangiye gutinya kuhanyura.

Amakuru avuga ko ubwato burenga 15 bwamaze kuraswaho mu gihe bwageragezaga kuwucamo.

Ibi byatumye ibihugu bimwe birimo ibyo mu Burayi na Amerika bitangira gutekereza kohereza amato y’intambara, ingabo n’indege kugira ngo biherekeze amato y’ubucuruzi anyura muri uyu muhora.

Ingaruka ku giciro cy’ibitoro

Abasesenguzi bavuga ko uko umutekano muri uyu muhora urushaho guhungabana, ari ko igiciro cy’ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’icy’ubwikorezi bwo mu nyanja kigenda cyiyongera.

Ibiro ntaramakuru Reuters byatangaje ko amato manini agera ku 150 atwara peteroli yamaze guhagarara, ategereje kumenya uko umutekano uhagaze mbere yo kwambuka uwo muhora.

Amakuru ya London Stock Exchange Group agaragaza ko igiciro cyo gukodesha ubwato bunini cyane (supertanker) butwara ibitoro biva mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati bijya mu Bushinwa cyikubye hafi kabiri mu cyumweru kimwe gusa.

Ubu gukodesha ubwo bwato byarenze amadorari ibihumbi 400, bikaba ari cyo giciro cyo hejuru cyigeze kugaragara muri uru rwego.

Ingaruka ku bukungu bw’ibihugu byinshi

Ihungabana ry’umutekano muri uyu muhora rishobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku bihugu byo mu kigobe cy’Abarabu, aho ubukungu bwabyo bushingiye cyane ku kugurisha ibitoro mu mahanga.

Iran na yo ubwayo, nubwo yafatiwe ibihano, iracyohereza ku masoko mpuzamahanga utugunguru miliyoni 1.7 tw’ibitoro ku munsi, nk’uko bitangazwa n’Ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu (International Energy Agency).

Mu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari warangiye muri Werurwe 2025, Iran yinjije miliyari 67 z’amadolari mu kugurisha ibitoro.

Ingaruka zishobora kugera kuri buri wese

Guhungabana cyangwa gufungwa k’umuhora wa Hormuz bishobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku bihugu byinshi byo muri Aziya, kuko ari byo byakira igice kinini cy’ibitoro bica muri iyo nzira.

Imibare yo mu 2022 igaragaza ko hafi 82% by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli byanyuraga muri uyu muhora byajyaga muri Aziya.

Ubushinwa ni bwo bugura igice kinini cy’ibitoro Iran yohereza ku isoko mpuzamahanga, kuko bugura hafi 90% byabyo.

Ibyo bitoro bikoreshwa cyane mu nganda zikora ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu bindi bihugu ku isi. Ni yo mpamvu izamuka ry’igiciro cy’ibitoro rishobora gutuma n’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa ku isi bizamuka, bikagira ingaruka ku baguzi bose.

Mu rwego rwo kugabanya izi ngaruka, ibihugu bigize Ikigo Mpuzamahanga gishinzwe Ingufu byiyemeje gushyira ku isoko utugunguru miliyoni 400 tw’ibitoro bifite mu bubiko.

Ni ingamba igamije kugerageza kubuza ko igiciro cy’ibitoro kizazamuka cyane ku masoko mpuzamahanga.

Ariko uko intambara ikomeje muri aka karere, gufungwa cyangwa guhungabana k’umuhora wa Hormuz bikomeje gutera inkeke ku isi, kuko ingaruka zabyo zishobora kugera kuri buri wese.